While the administration of US President Joe Biden is bringing back a more familiar and predictable approach to global affairs, the medium- and long-term outlook for US foreign policy remains much more uncertain. Any shift in US grand strategy over the next 15 years would have significant implications for transatlantic relations – particularly for Germany, which has deep security relations and high-value economic ties with the United States. In order to assess the potential implications of future policy shifts and the kinds of mitigation required from Germany, I have developed three broad scenarios of how US strategy might evolve in as early as the next five years that I present here: liberal internationalism, realism, and isolationism and protectionism.
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